Iceland to the EU?

Iceland's economy has crashed like a viking ship in a storm, and the country as the government has just stepped down, negotiations are ongoing between a Social-democratic and Green alliance to form a new government.

A main issue the government will face is whether Iceland should become a member of the EU. After years of being close to Europe, Iceland has nevertheless not wanted to join the EU, partly because of fear (more or less justified) that the EU would go right after the lifeblood of Iceland, its fishing industry, but also because Iceland's nationalism, only having achieved full independence from Denmark in 1944. Icelanders are similar to other Scandinavian countries such as Denmark and Norway in that regard: "as long as we are doing well, what do we need the rest of the world for...?"

It seems that now that times are not so good in Iceland any longer, EU membership is considered an option (isn't that nice? Shun others when times are good, but when times are bad...), and the coming government will apparently want to hold a referendum on EU entry already in May. Application for actual membership may even be submitted before that, while the current Commission is still in place (a new Commission is set to take office in the fall), to commence negotiations during the Swedish EU presidency in the fall of 2009, rather than later, during potentially not-so-friendly presidencies by Spain and Belgium in 2010 respectively.

The enlargement fatigue that has somehow hit the EU after the 2005 enlargement and the popular rejection of the draft constitutional treaty is unlikely to have repercussions on the EU: with only 320,000 inhabitants, Iceland would be the smallest member of the EU (less than Luxembourg or Malta), so this would unlikely pose the challenges for vertical integration that for instance Turkish membership does.
Furthermore, with a healthy degree of Scandinavian pragmatism, acknowledging the dependence on their largest trading partner, Icelanders have already implemented most EU legislation into national law. This would mean that eventual application for EU membership would be made easier, since negotiations for the application of EU, the most important pre-condition for membership, would not be as prolongued as is the case with for instance Turkey.

I have no doubt that if Iceland decides to apply, they will soon join the EU, something that nevertheless should not be overestimated: the large advantage will be for Iceland more than for the EU, who will nevertheless gain a beautiful country with great people!