While the media is partly to blame about the lack of interest, I am developing a certain suspicion that some of the candidates also have an interest in not promoting interest or debate on the EU elections. Sadly, a low turnout will benefit only the ones with a populist message and/or who already have a face in the media.
This includes all the top candidates from the parties, many of whom are already known politicians, and some are already MEP's. Whenever any of these candidates say something about Turkey or Danish participation in the Euro, they get all the attention, but more often than not, they don't engage in a debate on the subjects.
But the few people who will bother voting will only look at whom then have been exposed to the most, and many of these politicians know this, and thus will not want to upset the precarious balance of disinterest for the elections.
Who knows what might happen if voters start asking questions?!?
Thus, I sadly think that many of the younger and very competent candidates have little chance of getting elected. In fact, I think that the elections will be pretty predictable: with a turnout below 50% (just like in 2004), I predict that the candidates that will get elected are:
- Margrete Auken, SF
- Morten Messerschmidt, Dansk Folkeparti
- Jens Rohde, Venstre
- Bendt Bendtsen, Konservative
- Søren Søndergaard, Folkebevægelsen mod EU
- Sofie Carsten Nielsen, Radikale Venstre
- Hanne Dahl, Junibevægelsen
- Dan Jørgensen, Socialdemokratiet
- Britta Thomsen, Socialdemokratiet
- Morten Løkkegaard, Venstre
- Johannes Lebech, Radikale Venstre
- Emilie Turunen, SF
- Christel Schaldemose, Socialdemokratiet
But it truth, I doubt that many beyond these have a chance as long as the debate and turnout is so poor. However, I do think that in light of current Danish politics, SF and Socialdemokratiet will do well, while the explicitly anti-EU movements will likely do poorly when turnout is so low.
Let us see on June 7th how wrong I am!
2 comments:
I guess I have too much time in my hands...
Hey, but one should mention that I had 10 of them right!
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