Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Prediction for the results of the EP election in Denmark

I have engaged in an in-depth analysis of all candidates for the EU Parliamentary elections. While I have already sent all the people I will potentially give my vote to a number of questions, I have also made some reflections on this election, in particularly related to the fact that nobody is interested in the election: there is little about it in the media and some of the most important issues are only discussed if you really search for it (try to find anything on consumder protection or energy, some of the most important issues the Parliament will work with!). I have also been trying to find debates with the candidates that I can participate in: tomorrow I will go to one, but some of the main ones seem to be reserved for journalists (wonder why since they never write about this!), business-men (smell some lobbyism...?) and active members of the political parties (I am member of a party myself, but they seem to take it for granted that I will vote for them since I have not received a single thing on the EU elections).

While the media is partly to blame about the lack of interest, I am developing a certain suspicion that some of the candidates also have an interest in not promoting interest or debate on the EU elections. Sadly, a low turnout will benefit only the ones with a populist message and/or who already have a face in the media.
This includes all the top candidates from the parties, many of whom are already known politicians, and some are already MEP's. Whenever any of these candidates say something about Turkey or Danish participation in the Euro, they get all the attention, but more often than not, they don't engage in a debate on the subjects.
But the few people who will bother voting will only look at whom then have been exposed to the most, and many of these politicians know this, and thus will not want to upset the precarious balance of disinterest for the elections.
Who knows what might happen if voters start asking questions?!?

Thus, I sadly think that many of the younger and very competent candidates have little chance of getting elected. In fact, I think that the elections will be pretty predictable: with a turnout below 50% (just like in 2004), I predict that the candidates that will get elected are:
  • Margrete Auken, SF
  • Morten Messerschmidt, Dansk Folkeparti
  • Jens Rohde, Venstre
  • Bendt Bendtsen, Konservative
  • Søren Søndergaard, Folkebevægelsen mod EU
  • Sofie Carsten Nielsen, Radikale Venstre
  • Hanne Dahl, Junibevægelsen
  • Dan Jørgensen, Socialdemokratiet
  • Britta Thomsen, Socialdemokratiet
  • Morten Løkkegaard, Venstre
  • Johannes Lebech, Radikale Venstre
  • Emilie Turunen, SF
  • Christel Schaldemose, Socialdemokratiet
Of course, other outsiders are Jan Køpke Christensen (Konservative), Charlotte Antonsen, Venstre , Benjamin Dickow (Liberal Alliance), Keld Albrechtsen (Junibevægelsen), Kenneth Kristensen (Dansk Folkeparti), Hanne Severinsen (Venstre), Anne E. Jensen (Venstre).
But it truth, I doubt that many beyond these have a chance as long as the debate and turnout is so poor. However, I do think that in light of current Danish politics, SF and Socialdemokratiet will do well, while the explicitly anti-EU movements will likely do poorly when turnout is so low.

Let us see on June 7th how wrong I am!

2 comments:

Erik Cleves Kristensen said...

I guess I have too much time in my hands...

Erik Cleves Kristensen said...

Hey, but one should mention that I had 10 of them right!

Post a Comment